Just two months in the past that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
